A prediction
19 April 2026i(2026-April: LinkedIn) have a track record of accurate predictions. it’s easy to get something wrong, but actually I think it’s easier to get it right when you know your subject or market inside out. The entire commercial property market is too big to know inside out, at least I think so, but sectors and segments aren’t.
The direction the shop property market is taking has been easy to predict for decades. What has caused the decline of trading positions including ‘high streets’ was easy to pin-point, long before out-of-town malls and retail parks, and such like. The knock-on-effect of comparable evidence destabilising trading positions occupied by established multiple retailers whose magnetic presence was the attraction in the first place meant that when they relocated to better value for money positions they took their customers with them.
Capitalising on yield compression introduced another layer to the investment market, in the process uncoupling the inter-dependent relationship between rent and capital growth. Yield compression is a play on interest rates. Rent’s role to set the amount to stake on the bet. Buy at for example 8% when interest rates are 5%, and sell when interest rates are 0.1%.
A few years ago the RICS top brass had to call in a QC to report on governance. Last year, the RICS claimed a shortage of surveyors; a point I picked up on as RICS-specific, rather than a shortage generally. As a career move the relevance of the RICS is questionable. It has nothing like the potential afforded to solicitors and chartered accountants.. For some tasks it is necessary to be a chartered surveyor, but not for the really-profitable services – for example, agency – all one needs is a reputation for trustworthiness and competence, both of which are readily-earned simply by being knowledgeable, consistent, and ethical.
I don’t think one can buy ethics. Principles, moral stance, are reflections of personal belief, attitude and conduct. I’ve said this before, but the fact that the RICS has to publish Core Principles suggests to me that too many of its members need to be reminded in case they stray from what is expected. But why would anyone want to stray of their own accord unless tempted or lured. Which begs the question how come they got over the barriers to entry to begin with? One answer is the RICS need for revenue.
I’ve identify several contradictory factors that to my way of thinking do not make sense for an institution that prides itself on professional standards and ethics. And they are certainly not behaviours that I would ever want to stoop to. Yet the RICS sees nothing wrong, nothing unethical.
The way things are going I predict the RICS will not exist within the next 25-40 years because it will have done itself a disservice.
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